Andy Munns
With less than a week until Salisbury votes to elect its new MP, things are starting to tighten up.
Not officially a target seat by either the Liberal Democrats or Labour, both parties look able to push incumbent Conservative John Glen close.
As we move closer to July 4th, polling companies’ data improves, and several now have Salisbury remaining Conservative being more unsure.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning hard for ‘change’ in the city, and the boundary changes seem to be assisting their cause. Both claim they are the party to oust the Conservatives after 100 years in Salisbury.
Listen to our interview with all the Salisbury candidates here
YouGov, last updated on June 25th, shows the Conservatives as most likely to win the Salisbury seat, but it uses its least likely projection to suggest that.
YouGov places Victoria Charleston as the most likely challenger, with Matt Aldridge a close third. A small swing of votes from one to the other and a result on the lower end of the range for Conservative John Glen could see a change of MP for Salisbury.
Electoral Calculus, which shows it’s working when making predictions, sees things differently.
They predict a Labour victory for Matt Aldridge, with John Glen second most likely to win the seat.
They give percentage chances of winning, with Labour having a 46% chance, the Conservatives a 41% chance, and the Lib Dems trailing in third with a 13% chance.
Ipsos also agree that Labour is the most likely to win in Salisbury, giving Matt Aldridge a 2% winning margin over Conservative John Glen in what they call a toss-up.
Again, like Electoral Calculus, they place the Liberal Democrats and Victoria Charleston in third place.
Finally, Election Maps’ Now Cast Map also predicts a tight contest and a Labour gain for Matt Aldridge. The ‘Nowcast’ model is based on recent GB-wide polling. Vote share estimates are calculated from the most recent poll published by British Polling Council members.
However, they see things as a more closely fought election, with only a 1% difference between Labour and John Glen of the Conservatives. They also predict Victoria Charleston of the Liberal Democrats will finish in third place.
All the polls agree that Reform UK candidate Julian Malins will likely finish fourth, with Barney Norris of the Green Party to finish fifth.
Independent Arthur Pendragon and Climate Party candidate Chris Harwood are unlikely to cause much disruption in Salisbury.
Full list of candidates in Salisbury:
- Matt Aldridge (Labour)
- Victoria Charleston (Liberal Democrat)
- John Glen (Conservatives)
- Chris Harwood (Climate Party)
- Julian Malins (Reform UK)
- Barney Norris (Green)
- King Arthur Pendragon (Independent)
Tune into Salisbury Radio’s Election Night Special with all the news from 10 pm as the polls close on Thursday, 4th July.
With Craig Hicks in the studio, Andy Munns at the counts at Five Rivers Leisure Centre and via Radio News Hub, we have Jonathan Charles on College Green in Westminster bringing the national picture.
