Can Salisbury stay up - all the scenarios explained

This Saturday sees the culmination of the 2024/25 season of the Vanarama National League South, Salisbury’s first season at this level since the new club was formed and began playing again in 2015.

Brian Dutton’s side have battled hard all season to maintain their status as a Step Two side, and we will find out on Saturday if that effort has paid off.

Things at both ends of the table are tight and could see a change of champion and who will be relegated as time ticks by from 3 pm on Saturday afternoon.

Six teams at the top of the table can still mathematically win the league, and the one automatic top spot to the Vanarama National League.

Whilst Salisbury supporters might have their eyes on the positions nearer the bottom of the table, it’s worth noting that both Enfield and St Albans face sides in that group of six who can still take that all-important top spot.

It’s not just finishing first that is important; those who finish second and third go directly to the play-off semi-finals, whilst those finishing fourth to sixth will face off against each other to reach the semi-finals.

Salisbury currently sit in 20th in the table, with their destiny pretty much in their own hands – though that statement comes with a caveat.

Fixtures:

Permutations:

Enfield Win/Draw – Salisbury Win – St Albans Win*

If both St Albans and Salisbury win, and Enfield win or draw, they will be safe along with Salisbury, while St Albans will be relegated.

Here comes that caveat: *UNLESS St Albans win by a margin of two more (or more) goals than Salisbury do. This would then see Salisbury relegated by goal difference. If the sides finish level on goal difference, Salisbury will stay up because they have scored more goals this season (55 to St Albans’ 45 as it stands), which is the next factor considered when sides finish level on points and goal difference.

Enfield Lose – Salisbury Win – St Albans Win

If both Salisbury and St Albans win and Enfield lose, it will be Enfield who are relegated and Salisbury and St Albans will retain their status in the league.

This is because of the three sides, Enfield have a significantly poorer goal difference compared to the other two sides.

Enfield Win/Lose/Draw – Salisbury Draw/Win – St Albans Draw/Lose

Salisbury and Enfield will retain their position in the Vanarama National League South, and St Albans will be relegated.

Enfield Win/Lose/Draw – Salisbury Draw – St Albans Win

Salisbury would be relegated, and St Albans would join Enfield in being safe.

Enfield Win/Lose/Draw – Salisbury Lose – St Albans Lose+

Salisbury would retain their position alongside Enfield, whilst St Albans would be relegated.

Here comes a similar caveat to before: +UNLESS Salisbury lose by a two-goal (or bigger) margin than St Albans do. This would give St Albans a better goal difference than Salisbury. If the sides finish level on goal difference, Salisbury will stay up because they have scored more goals this season (55 to St Albans’ 45 so far), which is the next factor considered when sides finish level on points and goal difference.

Effectively, Salisbury need to match or better what St Albans do to survive!

There will be twists and turns along the way. If you are unable to travel, Salisbury Radio Sport will bring you all the action and keep you up to date with how the permutations are unfolding as the games are played out.